Cutting through the Complexity: Why Not a Lottery for College Admissions?
- Michael Bastedo, Center for the Study of Higher and Postsecondary Education, University of Michigan
Many prominent social scientists have advocated for random-draw lotteries as a solution to the “problem” of college admissions. They argue that lotteries will be fair and equitable, eliminate corruption, reduce student anxiety, restore democratic ideals, and end debates over race-conscious admissions. In response, we simulate potential lottery effects on U.S. student enrollment by race, gender, and income, using robust simulation methods. If we went to a lottery system, what would happen to student diversity? And how could this change the built relationship between students and selective colleges?
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Michael Bastedo is the Marvin W. Peterson Collegiate Professor and Associate Dean, Center for the Study of Higher and Postsecondary Education, University of Michigan. His scholarly interests are in higher education decision making, particularly college admissions, stratification, rankings, and governance. He is the founding director of the Michigan Admissions Collaboratory, a practice-to-research center designed to facilitate and promote college admissions research both in the U.S. and internationally. In 2023 he was elected to the National Academy of Education. His most recent research, funded by The National Science Foundation, has been reported by journalists at National Public Radio, The New York Times, The New Yorker, The Washington Post, Slate, and The Chronicle of Higher Education, among others.